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Alan Polley: What is r* and how it helps investors analyse rates
We’d all like a better idea of where cash rates are going and what returns we can expect from our investments in the future.
One of the tools our multi-asset team uses to get a better view is r*.
Pronounced “r-star”, it’s a term economists use for the real level of interest rates at which the economy neither expands nor contracts.
“Looking forward, we see the r* around the 1 per cent level – providing a reasonable compensation for the opportunity cost of supplying capital,” says Alan Polley, a PM with our multi-asset team.
“A higher r* means the forward-looking return environment is higher than it has been since the GFC.
“Another nice aspect is valuations – with r* trending down before the pandemic we had valuations going up. High valuations mean more risk looking forward.
“Now that we have r* at more normal levels, valuations are back to more normal levels as well.
“These two things suggest the return outlook is more attractive than it was before the pandemic.”
FAST PODCAST: What wages and jobs are telling us about recession and rates
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FAST PODCAST: What wages and jobs are telling us about recession and rates
Consumers are feeling gloomy but are we still headed for recession?
With inflation “sufficiently well-behaved”, the main factors to watch are now unemployment and wages, says our head of bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast.
“I think in the US it’s still the case that we are going to have a very mild recession at some point.”
While it’s taken longer than expected, the impact of 5.25% of rate hikes in just over a year are starting to show through among consumers.
“The one thing that’s keeping the US economy ticking over still quite well is employment.”
Jobs and wages should remain “not strong, but well-behaved” this year, which should stop any chance of near-term rate cuts, says Tim.
In Australia the chances of recession are far lower due to population growth, he says.
“But there is definitely a possibility we’ll have a GDP per capita recession. In other words, the economy will be better off but individually we may not feel that way.”
ESG: Regnan launches investor guide to managing biodiversity risks
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ESG: Regnan launches investor guide to managing biodiversity risks
Most investors are now aware of climate change risks.
But biodiversity loss is fast emerging as the next big concern for investors, as financial institutions grapple with how to measure and manage the ecological systems underpinning economic stability.
“Land degradation has reduced the productivity of nearly one-quarter of the global land surface, impacted the wellbeing of about 3.2 billion people and cost about 10% of annual global GDP in lost ecosystem services,” the UN reported in 2019.
Sustainable leader Regnan has just released an investor guide, Beyond Biodiversity, which outlines a set of guiding principles for effective stewardship of biodiversity, nature and ecosystems.
“We want a stable natural system, a stable social system and a stable economic system,” says report author Oshadee Siyaguna.
“The fewer disruptions there are to business operations and socioeconomic conditions, the better and more predictable the investment outcomes.
ASX midcaps: Why medical imager Pro Medicus has captured our attention
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ASX midcaps: Why medical imager Pro Medicus has captured our attention
Sam Hupert started as a GP in 1980 and within a couple of years realised the then-nascent world of computing would have a big impact on medicine.
Within three years he’d started Pro Medicus, an imaging software provider working with hospitals, imaging centres and health care groups.
Today the ASX-listed group – held in Pendal Midcaps Fund – is worth more than $6 billion.
The global diagnostic imaging market is worth some $US28 billion globally – and growing at 4.9%, according to Grand View Research.
Growth drivers include an increasing prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases, rising demand for early detection tools, speedier diagnosis, government investment and expansion into developing nations, Grand View reports.
Pro Medicus is mainly in radiology now, but its technology could be used in cardiology, ophthalmology and pathology and all areas of reflected light, says Pendal equities analyst Oliver Renton.
How Pendal investors helped make the world a better place in 2022
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How Pendal investors helped make the world a better place in 2022
As “stewards of capital”, Pendal undertook 562 ESG-related meetings with investee companies and issuers on behalf of investors in 2022.
These “engagements” – where we seek to influence positive outcomes on ESG matters – are one of the benefits of investing with an “active” investment manager.
Deep, fundamental research capabilities in this area are increasingly important, says Pendal’s Richard Brandweiner in our 2022 stewardship report (which you can find here).
“The challenge for investors is identifying authentic leadership that can leverage non-financial factors to generate real economic value,” Richard says.
“Since many of the basic hygiene factors are already considered, it will become particularly difficult for systematic processes like those used by the mainstream ESG score providers to assess this.”
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