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Oliver Ge: Fears of a ’70s inflation re-run are overblown
US inflation numbers were higher than expected in August, prompting more headlines about a second wave of inflation and further interest rate rises.
Can investors really expect a 1970s inflation re-run?
“There’s a lot of commentary on a possible ’70s-style, second wave of inflation,” says Oliver Ge, a portfolio manager with Pendal’s income and fixed interest team.
“But I don’t believe we’re going down that path. We’re not even close to a rerun of the 70s.”
Higher US inflation in August is just one uptick after 13 consecutive months of disinflation – and inflammatory news headlines are unwarranted, Oliver argues.
“The difference is that back then, the US was highly oil-dependent, and it also was experiencing a massive devaluation of its currency. Put the two together and it triggered a big wave of inflation.
“The US is no longer energy-dependent – in fact it is an exporter of oil. Unionisation is no longer widespread. There’s none of the original catalysts that prompted the blowout.”
Emerging Markets: Why Dubai and Abu Dhabi should be more than just a stopover
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Emerging Markets: Why Dubai and Abu Dhabi should be more than just a stopover
You’ve probably flown through Dubai – but have you thought about investing there?
“It’s one of our overweights that’s been doing well and which we think is perhaps flying below the radar,” says James Syme, a senior portfolio manager with our Emerging Markets team.
Since Covid, the UAE has staged a powerful comeback, says James.
“We’ve seen a big recovery in overnight visitor numbers. We’ve also seen a full recovery in oil production which took a big hit during Covid.
“But perhaps more importantly, we’ve seen a number of structural changes that are helping support the recovery.”
Among the reforms is the creation of a new visa category for non-nationals that allows residency for up to 10 years.
“That’s really helped support the movement of foreign nationals into the country.”
What’s driving Aussie equities this week
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What’s driving Aussie equities this week
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to Pendal investment analyst ANTHONY MORAN. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams
THE dominant narrative of resilient global economic momentum and higher-for-longer rates continues.
US 10-year government bond yields rose 7bps last week, driven by higher oil prices, a slightly higher-than-expected inflation print and resilient economic and corporate data.
At the margins there was data suggesting China’s economy is turning a corner.
Commodities were strong overall and US dollar took a breather after its strong rally over the quarter-to-date.
The European Central Bank took a dovish turn after increasing rates last week. President Christine Lagarde indicated the tightening cycle was most likely done. The problem for Europe is they are heading into a recession.
The S&P 500 fell 0.12% and the S&P/ASX 300 gained 1.82% last week.
China’s economy is showing signs of recovery. Here’s how our fixed income team is responding
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China’s economy is showing signs of recovery. Here’s how our fixed income team is responding
Recent data suggests China’s economic activity could be starting to stabilise.
Monthly industrial output sped up and retail sales grew faster than expected. Is this a turning point in the economic cycle?
That remains to be seen, cautions Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick, who has taken a close look at the latest signals.
“It’s been only a few months since hopes for a re-opening led boom in economic activity were dashed,” says Amy.
“We think activity is now stabilising on a cyclical basis, and China’s economy can continue to gradually recover into the end of the year.
“But structural drags on the economy are heavy and deep-rooted.”
Amy has just published an article covering the strength of the recovery, structural issues and implications for global growth and investing.
Crispin Murray: Two factors underpinning ASX company earnings
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Crispin Murray: Two factors underpinning ASX company earnings
Most people would be aware from last week’s per-capita recession headlines that Australia’s population growth is outstripping economic growth.
But population growth – especially immigration and temporary visas – is also supporting corporate earnings, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
“All up, we’re probably looking at about a 3 per cent rise in the population today versus a year ago.
“People are coming to Australia with money in their pockets, setting themselves up and getting accommodation – which is driving up rents.
“Part of the reason we’re seeing resilience in the top line of companies is because they’re basically driven by nominal GDP, not per capita GDP.”
Population growth is also offsetting the effects of the ‘mortgage cliff’ which forces households into higher, variable mortgage payments as low-rate fixed loans expire, Crispin says.
“With each company we met over reporting season, we talked about the issues facing them and if they were seeing consequences from this mortgage cliff. So far, the consequences are very limited.”
Latest updates from our fund managers
Income and Fixed Interest
Tim Hext: Australian business remains resilient as we enter spring
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August 10, 2023
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