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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
Aug 21
Four big issues driving markets | How tariffs bring opportunities | Why Brazil still looks good
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Investors should be watching four macro issues at the moment, says Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
- US inflation trends and the impact of tariffs: “There is nothing in the current inflation data to derail a September rate cut,” says Crispin. Tariff revenues are beginning to flow through “and we are now in the key phase of assessing the impact on inflation”.
- US economic growth momentum: “Data suggests the industrial side of the economy is struggling but consumers are holding up okay.” Look to Fed chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday and payrolls on Sep 4.
- Chinese policy initiatives: Expect a softer second half for China, which may mean more incremental stimulus measures.
- Australian economic growth momentum: The Australian economic outlook looks reasonable but a tight labour market will encourage the RBA to remain measured.
Pendal’s emerging markets team remains bullish on Brazil despite latest tariffs
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Pendal’s emerging markets team remains bullish on Brazil despite latest tariffs
Despite ongoing tariff uncertainty, Pendal’s emerging markets team remains positive on the outlook for Brazil.
Early this month the US imposed sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries.
Brazil received a special mention from President Trump, with an additional 40 per cent tariff taking the total to 50 per cent for most Brazilian imports.
But some sizeable exemptions will limit the effective tariff rate to around 30 per cent, says Pendal’s EM team in a new note.
Civil aircraft, fertilisers, pig iron, orange juice and mining exports are largely protected.
“We remain positive on the outlook for Brazil and Brazilian equities,” says the team.
“With a relatively strong economy, attractive valuations and the support of a weaker US dollar, Brazilian equities and the Brazilian real have both performed well this year.
“We see the conditions for this to continue, irrespective of challenging headlines.”
Amy Xie Patrick: How tariffs, inflation and China’s ‘anti-involution’ policy are affecting portfolio decisions
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Amy Xie Patrick: How tariffs, inflation and China’s ‘anti-involution’ policy are affecting portfolio decisions
Despite higher input costs from Donald Trump’s tariffs – and some weakness in jobs data last week – US consumer inflation has barely budged.
That’s largely due to contract lags in supply chains and producers absorbing the pain, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick.
Purchasing manager surveys show input prices rising – a sign that tariffs are indeed biting at the producer level.
Normally, higher input costs push up consumer prices. That doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
“But this delay won’t last forever,” says Amy. “When contracts roll off, either producers absorb the cost hit or they pass it on. Either way, corporate earnings are at risk.”
While US earnings season has been solid so far, the trend is heading down: three straight quarters of falling earnings growth.
The market has yet to price-in this “pinch”, argues Amy.
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
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Pendal profile: Meet Australian equities analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay
AUSTRALIAN equities have the potential to offer investors a compelling trio of benefits, argues analyst and portfolio manager Elise McKay.
In this video, Elise explains how the Pendal investment process helps her team identify and take advantage of opportunities in Australian shares.
Fast podcast: Tariff uncertainty means opportunity for active investors
Play podcastFast podcast: Tariff uncertainty means opportunity for active investors
As tariff news has died down, markets have come flying back in the last few months.
“But we do have a world now where the US tariff rate on average is around 18%,” observes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies, Tim Hext.
“That is not a world we have seen for almost 100 years, not since World War II.”
But it’s an environment made for active investors, says Tim in this new short podcast.
It can take years to understand the full impact of trade tariffs, yet markets tend to be very short-term focused, he says.
“That does present a lot of opportunities for an active manager,” says Tim.
“It gives does give us plenty of good opportunities to add value in active portfolios, and that’s what we’re doing at the moment.”
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Amy Xie Patrick: What the Fed’s shift from inflation to employment means for investors
A shift in focus from inflation to employment hints at a likely rate cut in September observes Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK
In her latest article, Amy explains how she is positioning Pendal’s income funds in response to these and other global factors.
Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
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Crispin Murray: What’s driving the ASX this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray.
- US rate expectations
- AI sentiment shift
- Tariffs
Aug 7
Outlook for US inflation | What’s driving equities? | Be cautious with Korean equities
July 24
Unemployment may drift higher | Meet Pendal’s small caps team | Be cautious with Korean equities
Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.
But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?
We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.
But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.
“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.
“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”
Tim goes into detail here
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