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The Point
Quick, actionable insights for investors
July 24
Unemployment may drift higher | Meet Pendal’s small caps team | Be cautious with Korean equities
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
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Unemployment’s up. Is it just noise or a sign of things to come?
The latest monthly unemployment data should all but seal an August rate cut, says Pendal’s Tim Hext.
Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in June – the highest rate since late 2021. Only a massive inflation surprise for the June quarter – due out next Wednesday – would stop an August rate cute, says Tim.
But is the June jobs data just noise or the start of a new, upward trend?
We won’t see further ABS jobs data until after next month’s RBA meeting.
But Tim notes that rapid growth in “non-market” jobs (mainly education and healthcare) has masked softer growth in “market” jobs for some time.
“There are signs this non-market job growth may be slowing, so unemployment may drift a bit higher into the end of year.
“However, forward indicators such as job vacancies and NAB’s monthly business survey do not suggest a sharp or rapid rise.”
Tim goes into detail here
Pendal profile: Meet our small-cap portfolio managers Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski
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Pendal profile: Meet our small-cap portfolio managers Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski
So far in 2025, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index has outperformed the ASX 200.
That dosen’t surprise Pendal’s small-cap PMs Lewis Edgley and Patrick Teodorowski, who expect smalls to bounce back as rates fall.
“We’ve seen in previous cycles when rates have started to be cut, that it tends to act as a positive catalyst for small caps,” says Patrick in a new Pendal video.
Patrick points to three diversification factors that experienced small-cap managers can use to their advantage:
1. The “sheer number of investable opportunities”, through which the team searches for mispriced opportunities
2. Wide sectoral breadth, which offers “money-making opportunities regardless of what the economy is doing”
3. And diversity of quality, which demands expertise and experience in finding the best businesses and avoiding the bad ones.
Watch the video here
Emerging markets: Why Korea requires caution despite strong recent performance
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Emerging markets: Why Korea requires caution despite strong recent performance
“We are now in a global environment that looks like a broad bull market in emerging market assets,” writes Pendal’s EM team in its latest monthly article.
However, investors still need to be picky at the country level, the team argues. Korea is an example.
“Historically in these environments, individual emerging markets often experience violent short-term, up-and-down moves as part of a trend of the broader asset class moving higher.
“That’s definitely what it looks like in Korea.
“The second quarter saw MSCI Korea rise 32.7% in USD terms, with the Korean Won’s 8.9% move up against the US Dollar contributing significantly.”
But the stronger Won is a drag on exporters – the backbone of the Korean economy. Meanwhile, first-quarter GDP growth was stagnant and local politics remains unpredictable.
While Pendal’s EM team holds some of the best-performing Korean stocks, overall, it sees more opportunity in Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
Find out more here
Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
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Amy Xie Patrick: China, the US, and the value of uncertainty
This month’s divergence in US and China rates policies wasn’t just a curiosity for money managers, observes Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“It’s a study in contrasts, a reflection of deeper structural differences, and a reminder that policy effectiveness doesn’t always come wrapped in transparency or even democracy,” says Amy in her latest markets analysis.
On May 7, the US Fed left rates unchanged despite growing political pressure. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China delivered another dose of stimulus.
“One central bank faced market criticism over its non-committal guidance,” notes Amy. “The other moved swiftly and silently, without needing to justify its decision.
“Perhaps the most contrarian yet valuable takeaway is that less policy guidance may be a good thing.
“By avoiding the hard task of forecasting far into the future, we free ourselves from unhelpful narratives may that turn out to be false.
“By focusing on getting it right rather than always being right, we’re able to preserve the flexibility to change course when the fundamentals change.”
Read Amy’s full article here
Latest updates from our fund managers
In-depth
Amy Xie Patrick: Tariffs, US inflation and China’s “Anti-Involution”
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Emerging Markets
Emerging markets: Look past commodity exports to countries with strong domestic demand
July 26, 2023
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Amy Xie Patrick: Tariffs, US inflation and China’s “Anti-Involution”
TARIFFS will either show up in inflation or corporate earnings. The implications are starkly different for portfolio decisions.
Despite higher input costs from new tariffs, US consumer inflation has barely budged. The reason? Contract lags in supply chains and Chinese producers absorbing the pain. The first offset may not last—but markets have yet to price in what happens if they do.
That’s why we’ve already booked profits and dialled down risk in our income strategies, including trimming equity allocations. With market optimism still running high, the risk-reward is less compelling, so we’re keeping dry powder ready for better entry points.
Read Amy’s full article here
What’s driving ASX stocks this week?
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What’s driving ASX stocks this week?
Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week, according to Pendal portfolio manager PETE DAVIDSON. Reported by investment specialist Chris Adams.
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