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FAST PODCAST: What makes this cycle different – and which data investors should be watching

In times like these, how should investors think about their global equities portfolio? Hunker down? Buy the dips? Sell? In this fast podcast Pendal Global Select Fund co-manager CHRIS LEES explains his approach

You can also listen to this podcast on Apple or Spotify

An edited excerpt from this podcast

Every cycle is slightly different. What I think will be slightly different this time is the Fed is starting to raise interest rates as the global economy was already slowing.

In the past, the Fed was raising interest rates as the global economy was still accelerating, but because of Covid it got delayed.

So this time is slightly different. I just repeat that. This time is slightly different in that the Fed hasn’t even started raising rates – it’s talking about them. Actually, if you look at GDP growth rates, they’re beginning to slow and inflation rates are probably peaking.

So it will be very volatile. It’ll be a very volatile time for financial assets. It always is as you look in history when interest rates go up. And it’ll be slightly different from previous playbooks because the timing and the sequencing is slightly different.

The potential is for a big bear market. It’s a low probability potential at the moment, but every day the probabilities of that are drifting up.

And of course the disaster in Ukraine probably increases that risk.

The bullish potential is that actually this is a normal mid-cycle correction. [But] it’s too early to tell at the moment whether this is a normal, mid-cycle correction.


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Pendal Global Select Fund

Awarded researcher Zenith’s highest rating of highly recommended*


About Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal

Chris Lees co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund with Nudgem Richyal. The pair have been working together in global equities investing for more than 20 years.

Chris has more than 32 years of investment industry experience. He joined Pendal Group’s UK-based asset manager J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) in 2008 after spending 19 years at Baring Asset Management, ultimately as head of its global sector team.


About Pendal Global Select Fund

Pendal Global Select Fund is a global equities portfolio with a distinctive, yet proven approach and a 17-year track record of outperformance. Since its inception, the underlying strategy (JOHCM Global Select Fund) has delivered top-decile performance in Lipper and 2nd decile in Morningstar.*


This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at March 3, 2022. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Global Select Fund (Fund) ARSN: 651 789 678. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8:00am to 6:00pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

* The Zenith Investment Partners (ABN 27 103 132 672, AFS Licence 226872) (“Zenith”) rating (assigned ) referred to in this document is limited to “General Advice” (s766B Corporations Act 2001) for Wholesale clients only. This advice has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. It is not a specific recommendation to purchase, sell or hold the relevant product(s). Investors should seek independent financial advice before making an investment decision and should consider the appropriateness of this advice in light of their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should obtain a copy of and consider the PDS or offer document before making any decision and refer to the full Zenith Product Assessment available on the Zenith website. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Zenith usually charges the product issuer, fund manager or related party to conduct Product Assessments. Full details regarding Zenith’s methodology, ratings definitions and regulatory compliance are available on our Product Assessments and at http://www.zenithpartners. com.au/RegulatoryGuidelines

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