What’s driving ASX stocks this week

Here are the main factors driving the ASX this week according to Aussie equities analyst ELISE MCKAY. Reported by portfolio specialist Chris Adams

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GLOBAL equity markets remained relatively quiet last week as northern-hemisphere investors made the most of the last days of summer. 

Economic data was largely thought to be supportive of a soft landing and markets responded accordingly.

The Nasdaq gained 3.27% and the S&P 500 lifted 2.55%. 

A softer-than-expected US employment report on Friday supported the view that the Fed did not need to hike rates again. 

The market is now pricing in a 94% chance that Fed holds rates steady in September and 65% chance of a hold in November.

The consensus view is firmly a soft landing, goldilocks scenario. 

Data suggests the US is on track to deliver a very solid quarter of GDP growth, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure at 5.6% growth.

The market takes a more nuanced view, however, believing consumer strength won’t be sustained with a wave of headwinds closing in. 

Real personal spending growth has continued to run hotter than expected. But headwinds associated with a lower savings rate, resumption of student loan repayments and run-down of pandemic excess savings suggest strong personal consumption growth won’t be sustained into Q4. 

This raises concerns that a stronger-than-expected economy may over-ride improving trends in inflation and wages, leading to further uncertainty in rates and the Fed. 

This runs counter to the soft-landing scenario now priced into the market (and which recent data supports).

Despite dovish data on Friday, US 10-year bond yields counter-intuitively moved 10bps higher. Some pointed to stronger ISM manufacturing data (and particularly a move up in the price index) as less contractionary. 

Though lower market liquidity in a quiet week may have exacerbated the move.

In Australia, July inflation data came in well below expectations at 4.9%, down from 5.4% in June.  

Softness was largely driven by more volatile items. Excluding these, inflation picked up in July, mainly driven by higher electricity prices and housing purchase-price inflation. 

Meanwhile we wrapped up a volatile reporting season with one in eight stocks moving more than 10 per cent up or down – nearly double the average. 

This was despite results that were largely in line with expectations and earnings revisions no bigger than normal. 

The S&P/ASX 300 gained 2.6% for the week.

The Reserve Bank is expected to keep rates on hold this Tuesday.

The latest Chinese manufacturing data was mixed. Beijing announced a number of easing measures to support the property sector, consumption and currency. This is a step in the right direction, though more is needed. 

The global disinflation story continues. 

This is supportive for markets as we come close to the end of the tightening cycle and growth in the world’s largest economies remains largely intact.

US economics and policy

At 5.6%, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow – a measure of the growth of the US economy – continues to run well ahead of consensus estimates (which are in the mid-2% range for Q3 GDP). 

Who is right? And why the difference?

The Atlanta Fed methodology is model-based and extrapolates the latest economic data for the remainder of a quarter. This compares with human forecasting, which is more likely to mean revert. 

The biggest area of differences are:

1. Real consumption: GDPNow has extrapolated strong July data while forecasters are expecting weakness in August and September
2. Inventory: GDPNow has levels rebounding, which is not yet seen in actual levels across the economy

While GDPNow is a pretty accurate predictive tool, it only has one month of data for the quarter so far.

This raises a concern that a stronger-than-expected economy may swamp improving trends in inflation and wages.

This could create a dilemma for the Fed, leading to further uncertainty which runs counter to the soft-landing scenario now being priced into the market.  

US employment data

August’s employment report had non-farm payroll ahead of expectations at 187k new jobs versus 170k expected, but significant downward revisions (-110k) to the prior two months. 

The three-month average is now 150k. This is still above the equilibrium needed to keep pace with labour force growth, but it’s moving in the right direction (and is the lowest since 2021).

The unemployment rate surprised to the upside, rising 30bps to 3.8%. This is now the highest unemployment rate since February 2022.

This reflects higher labour force participation which is now at 62.8% – the highest since February 2020 – as well as a higher number of unemployed. 

Average hourly earnings also came in below expectations with the private sector rising 0.2% month-on-month, versus 0.3% expected.

In combination with Tuesday’s JOLTS data, which showed lower job vacancies in June (revised lower) and July, this suggests labour market conditions are continuing to loosen.

This should translate into weaker wage pressure, where we are looking for growth in a range of 3.0-3.5% growth, which is more consistent with inflation at 2%.

US inflation

The Fed’s preferred read on inflation – Personal Consumption Expenditures – is a measure of the total amount of goods and services purchased by Americans.

The latest data released on Thursday showed core PCE prices rising 0.22% in June, slightly ahead of consensus (0.20%). The annualised three-month rate is 3.3% and is up 4.2% year-on-year.

Core goods inflation declined further (-0.45% month-on-month) – the second negative read in a row. 

This should provide some comfort to the Fed, since Chair Jay Powell said sustained progress was “needed” at Jackson Hole. 

Disappointingly, core services (excluding rent) rose 0.5%, breaking the downward trend evident since January. More than half of the increase was due to a volatile financial services component. 

US consumer spending

Personal income grew 0.2% in July, slightly weaker than expected. There was a deceleration from +0.6% to +0.4% in wages and salaries. 

Consumer spending rose 0.8% in July with all categories stronger, driven by strong retail sales (assisted by Amazon’s Prime Day sale) and discretionary services. 

The “Barbenheimer” effect of the popular Barbie and Oppenheimer films showed in the data. Recreational services spending (such as movie tickets) were particularly strong at +10.7% for the month. 

Stronger spending and higher taxes contributed to a decline in the savings rate to 3.5%. 

Restarting student loan payments should cause a significant headwind to consumption in Q4. 

Meanwhile, about 75% of pandemic excess savings have now been spent. The remaining 25% are held by higher income households, which are less likely to spend it. 

US manufacturing

August US manufacturing data sent a mixed message to the market on Friday. 

While remaining in contractionary territory at 47.6 (marginally above consensus at 47) there was a focus on the Institute for Supply Management “prices paid” data.

A surprise jump from 42.6 to 48.4 (versus consensus at 44) raised some concern about how this might roll into core goods inflation, which is now in deflationary territory. 

Australia

Inflation data for July came in well below expectations, moderating to 4.9% (consensus at 5.2%) from 5.4% in June. 

Softness was largely driven volatile items such as fuel, fruit and veg, as well as travel. 

Excluding volatile items and travel, inflation picked up in July, mainly driven by higher electricity prices and housing purchase price inflation. 

China

Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7 in August, the highest reading since March. This was broadly consistent with anecdotal information that the pace of inventory destocking was slowing. 

However, non-manufacturing PMI declined to 51, the lowest reading of 2023, as the “reopening boost” from covid faded and construction activity weakened.

We are seeing a drip-feed of policies and support for markets, with concerns around housing, leverage, shadow-banking and capital flight still in focus. 

Last week, Beijing delivered a number of easing measures to support the property sector, consumption and currency.  It is a positive step in the right direction but more is needed. 

Summarising the key announcements:

• China Banks: Cuts to mortgage down-payment ratios and mortgage rates for new and existing mortgages.  Looking to stimulate the property sector and address concerns about the risk of a collapse given the increased number of credit risk events among major developers and financial institutions in the past couple of weeks.
• As part of the overall easing package, the PBoC also announced it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits by 200bp to 4% from 6%, effective from September 15. On the same day a year ago, the PBoC cut the FX RRR to 6% from 8%. A cut to 8% from 9% was made on May 15, 2022.
• Ministry of Finance: Cut stamp duty rates by 50% to 5bps. This marks the sixth stamp duty cut in history and the first since 2008.
• China Securities Regulator: Announced it will lower minimum margin requirements for margin finance effective September 8.
• China Securities Regulator: Will tighten IPO activities and major shareholder divestments. This includes major shareholder divestment restrictions if stocks trade below IPO price.
• US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and China counterpart Wang Wentao established a “commercial issues” working group, to find trade/investment solutions, and to meet twice annually. They agreed to set up an “export control enforcement information exchange” to serve as a platform to reduce misunderstandings on export restrictions
• China’s Finance Minister Liu Kun and the National Development and Reform Commission pledged to strengthen policy support and speed-up Govt spending to support the economy

In an example of how China could restimulate the birth rate, South Korea plans to cut mortgage rates for new parents to 1-3% below loans offered by commercial banks. 

Markets

August was one of the most volatile Australian earnings seasons in the past 15 years with one in eight stocks moving more than 10% up or down.

This is nearly double the average move and comes despite results being largely in-line with expectations and earnings revisions no larger than normal. 

For stocks up more than 10%, 85% of the move was explained by valuation re-rating. For those that moved down more than 10%, 65% of the move was from earnings downgrades. 

This possibly implies an overly-bearish outlook going into reporting season.

Cyclical sectors were better than expected, whilst defensives were more likely to disappoint.

Operating margins contracted slightly, resulting in a 2% average hit to EPS. 

The bigger impact was increased financing costs, with average interest expense up ~50% year-on-year, which dragged EPS down 6% on average. 

Should interest rates stay at current levels, this implies a further 7-14% headwind to EPS in the next couple of years as fixed-rate debt rolls off.  The other recurrent theme was upwards revisions to capex budgets, with a median +17% increase in capex for the half and +6% increase in consensus forecast for capex spending over FY24 / 25, largely driven by resources sector.  This is driven by cost overruns and inflation rather than growth. 

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About Elise McKay and Pendal Australian share funds

Elise is an investment analyst with Pendal’s Australian equities team. Elise previously worked as an investment analyst for US fund manager Cartica where she covered a variety of emerging market companies.

She has also worked in investment banking and corporate finance at JP Morgan and Ernst & Young.

Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund is a concentrated portfolio aligned with the transition to a more sustainable, future economy.

Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund is a high-conviction equity fund with a 16-year track record of strong performance in a range of market conditions. The Fund is rated at the highest level by Lonsec, Morningstar and Zenith.

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management. 

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