Michael Blayney: which asset classes look good now

It isn’t an easy market to invest in, but there are opportunities if you know where to look. Here’s a quick tour of the major asset classes from Pendal’s Multi-Asset chief MICHAEL BLAYNEY

• Equities and bonds have faced headwinds in 2022
• Macro environment is challenging
• Cash and inflation linked alternatives are preferred

THIS year investors have contended with rising inflation and interest rates, higher energy prices, the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.

There have been plenty of headwinds for both equities and bonds, says Michael Blayney, Head of Multi-Assets at Pendal Group. It isn’t an easy market to invest in.

Cash and alternative investments with inflation linkages are preferred over other asset classes, he says.

Here Blayney offers a quick snapshot of major asset classes.

Equities

Many key equity markets remain overvalued, Blayney says, notwithstanding the sell-off this year. Rising bond yields are also weighing on equity valuation.

Combined with deteriorating macro-economic backdrop, an underweight equities position may be appropriate.

“We continue to prefer better valued markets such as the United Kingdom and Japan, and rotational themes such as value/small cap,” he says.

“In US equities, large caps remain expensive while mid and smaller companies are around fair value.

“While Chinese equities screen as cheap, at this point we remain cautious due to a deterioration in earnings, and ongoing lockdowns.”

Credit

High-yield debt is offering limited reward for risk, Blayney says. Though a recent increase in investment-grade spreads means that asset class is offering decent returns on a medium-term basis.

Within credit, the best value is in investment grade, he says.

Government bonds

Yields now represent better value but bonds face a significant headwind from inflation.

Blayney recommends retaining some duration exposure for defensiveness within portfolios, though less than usual.

“Where possible, we have a preference for inflation protection and Australian exposure within portfolios.”

Listed real assets

Global real estate investment trusts are expensive, particularly considering higher bond yields, and the backdrop of rising interest rates.

However, there are select opportunities in listed infrastructure securities, Blayney says.

What it adds up to

Overlaying all asset allocation decisions is the macro-economic environment, Blayney says.

“Despite economic indicators still sitting at supportive levels, the momentum of economic indicators continues to soften,” he says.

“This is due to reduced emergency level monetary and fiscal stimulus, negative sentiment from the Russian/ Ukrainian conflict and Covid lockdowns in China.”

While headline inflation has likely peaked, inflation expectations have risen.

“Increasing doubts are emerging as to whether central banks around the world can engineer a controlled reduction of inflation or whether their actions create demand destruction and possibly recession.”

The maturing cycle and event risks suggest a defensive risk stance, Blayney says.

“Cash and alternatives with inflation linkage such as commodities and ‘value exposures’ are preferred.”

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About Michael Blayney and Pendal’s Multi-Asset capabilities

Michael Blayney leads Pendal’s multi-asset team. Michael has more than 20 years of investment management and consulting experience. He was previously Head of Investment Strategy at First State Super and head of Diversified Strategies at Perpetual.

Pendal’s diversified funds provide investors with a variety of traditional and alternative asset classes and strategies.

The team — which also includes Allan Polley — manages our multi-asset portfolios with a focus on strategic asset allocation, active management and tactical asset allocation.

Find out more about Pendal’s multi asset funds:

• Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund
• Pendal Sustainable Balanced Fund
• Pendal Sustainable Conservative Fund

Contact a Pendal account manager here