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FAST PODCAST: What rates expectations mean for bond-buying

Markets are anticipating plenty of rate hikes. How does that affect your bond-buying decisions today? Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT explains in this fast podcast

An excerpt from this podcast

“There’s a view that US cash rates will peak towards the end of next year somewhere between 2.5% and 3%.

“So a lot of hikes are priced in, which means if you buy a bond today, you’re getting all those future cash rate hikes implicit in the price.

“This is an important point to make to people. Bonds don’t sell off once rate hikes begin, they sell off well in advance.

“Often by the time rate hikes are actually beginning, bonds are close to peaking,” says Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext.

“There’s been a good case for being underweight bonds over the last couple of years because yields really were just far too low, given inflation. And yields even outside of inflation – which we call a real yield – were negative.

“Right now, though, we’re back to positive real yields – in Australia anyway and the US is starting to get there. And inflation expectations are quite high.

“I would suggest people who are underweight bonds should at least be looking to get back to their benchmark, or what they consider neutral in a balanced portfolio.

“I wouldn’t be going overweight bonds yet because I think this has a bit more to play out and you might see some better levels.

“But certainly bonds will at some stage perform at a strong defensive task for your balanced portfolio.

“It’s early days, but certainly I would be back to neutral in my allocation to bonds right here.”

Listen to the full podcast above


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Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest funds


About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique

Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.

Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.

Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.

The team won Lonsec’s Active Fixed Income Fund of the Year award in 2021 and Zenith’s Australian Fixed Interest award in 2020.

Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here


About Pendal Group

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

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This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at March 23, 2022.

PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Monthly Income Plus Fund (ARSN: 137 707 996) and Pendal Dynamic Income Fund (ARSN: 622 750 734) (Funds). A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund.

An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested.

This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation.

The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections.

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