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FAST PODCAST: How to think about inflation and rates right now

In this podcast Tim Hext explains how the nature of inflation is changing, what’s driving recession fears and which asset classes look promising

An excerpt from this interview with Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext:

The nature of inflation is changing slightly. Things like airfares have gone up a lot and rents. Used car prices also, which should have been coming off, had another surge.

But even though it’s a very high number – US consumer prices rose 1% for the month, which obviously is incredibly high – the May US inflation data was quite concentrated and quite a lot of other items did behave themselves.

But the market isn’t listening to that. They’re listening to the central theme and the central theme is that central banks are behind the curve.

The theme now is ‘we need to be back at neutral almost tomorrow’.

Neutral is between 2.5% and 3%. The US will get there in a few months. If market pricing is to believe, Australia also will be there well before the end of the year.

But it’s very clear that, even if they get to neutral quite quickly, inflation won’t necessarily be coming down at the same time. There’ll be a long lag.

Are they prepared to sit out that long lag and be patient, or are they actually going to take rates into contractionary territory?

That’s what equity markets and bond markets are now concerned about. They’re concerned that they’ll actually have to tighten into contractionary territory.

When that happens, the chances of a recession become a lot, lot higher.

Which asset classes look promising now? Tim explains in the above podcast

Listen to the full podcast above

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Find out about

Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest funds

About Tim Hext and Pendal’s Income & Fixed Interest boutique

Tim Hext is a Pendal portfolio manager and head of government bond strategies in our Income and Fixed Interest team.

Tim has extensive experience in banking, financial markets and funding including senior positions with NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp), Westpac Treasury, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Deutsche Bank, Bain & Co and Swiss Bank Corporation.

Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia.

The team won Lonsec’s Active Fixed Income Fund of the Year award in 2021 and Zenith’s Australian Fixed Interest award in 2020.

Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here

About Pendal Group

Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager

This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at June 16, 2022. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Monthly Income Plus Fund (ARSN: 137 707 996) and Pendal Dynamic Income Fund (ARSN: 622 750 734) (Funds). A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

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