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Fast podcast: How a weaker China could be good for bonds

China has emerged quickly from zero-Covid, but its property industry is holding the economy back. What does that mean for investors? Here’s a view from Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK

You can also listen to this podcast on Apple or Spotify
An excerpt from this podcast

Amy Xie Patrick, Pendal’s head of income strategies:

The dropping of zero-Covid measures largely means that the huge restrictions on mobility no longer exist in China and you can go about living life as you wish.

Post Covid we saw in Australia a massive lift in the demand for services, a massive lift in the desire to go traveling, and a shift in consumption towards services.

That’s exactly what’s happened in China in the first few months of re-opening.

The difference with the China story though, is that a large part of the economy is still on its knees – and that’s the property part of the economy.

When the property sector is in a slump, it means that confidence from the private sector generally is in a slump as well.

That’s what’s is leading to a lot of the recent data showing that the initial momentum from China’s reopening story seems to be petering out.

The longer-term structural story for property in China is not a good one.

The Chinese inflation picture – and especially its Producer Price Index (a leading indicator of inflation) –will continue to drag more on the global inflation story – which is good for bonds, argues Amy.

We think there are many strong reasons both cyclically and structurally to be favoring fixed income and bonds in portfolios right now.

The way the China growth story is shaping up for 2023 presents as one of the top five reasons to be buying bonds right now.

Follow Pendal’s The Point podcast on Apple, Spotify or Google

About Amy Xie Patrick and Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team

Amy is Pendal’s Head of Income Strategies. She has extensive experience and expertise in emerging markets, global high yield and investment grade credit and holds an honours degree in economics from Cambridge University.

Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. In 2021 the team won Lonsec’s Active Fixed Income Fund of the Year Award. In 2020 they won the Australian Fixed Interest category in the Zenith awards.

The team oversees some $20 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.

Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here

About Pendal Group

Pendal is a global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.

Contact a Pendal key account manager here

This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current at June 7, 2023. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Monthly Income Plus Fund (ARSN: 137 707 996) and Pendal Dynamic Income Fund (ARSN: 622 750 734) (Funds). A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com.

The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information.

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