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TODAY’S RBA rate hike of 50 basis points is no surprise – it’s coming off a low base.
The delay in lifting rates at the start of the year means we have a lot of ground to cover, just get back to neutral.
This month’s hike – which takes Australia’s official cash rate to 1.35% — is about tackling actual inflation.
Further hikes in coming months will be about tackling inflation expectations which are just as important to get under control.
This time last year we might have thought inflation was something that happened to others, but not here in Australia.
It’s now apparent that we are not different – just delayed. The delay has some upside though, since other developed economies can provide some guidance of what’s in store:
New Zealand | US | Canada | UK | Australia | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Policy rates | 2% | 1.75% | 1.5% | 1.25% | 1.35% |
Guidance aside, what everyone wants to know is: “How high can this go?”
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Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest funds
Australians have more say in the answer than we may realise.
While tackling inflation is now the number one priority, the RBA has no desire to send us into recession just for the sake of it.
That’s why the central bank is doing this delicate dance of 0.5% hike-and-see instead of breaking the economy with a one-off 2%-3% sledgehammer hit.
The Reserve Bank is trying for a soft landing. To achieve that, a few things need to dovetail for demand and supply to reach stable prices:
No pain, no gain. It is unpleasant to cut consumption, and no one wants a cut in real wages.
But a protracted rate hike cycle will send the Australian economy into a recession, which is no good for anyone. We have a say in how high RBA’s Cash Rate Target will be. It’s time to exercise that power.
Anna Hong is an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest team.
Pendal’s Income and Fixed Interest boutique is one of the most experienced and well-regarded fixed income teams in Australia. In 2020 the team won the Australian Fixed Interest category in the Zenith awards.
With the goal of building the most defensive line of funds in Australia, the team oversees A$22 billion invested across income, composite, pure alpha, global and Australian government strategies.
Find out more about Pendal’s fixed interest strategies here
Pendal is an independent, global investment management business focused on delivering superior investment returns for our clients through active management.
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